Positional War in Ukraine

Positional warfare is a type of warfare in which opposing armies establish fortified positions and engage in long-term battles of attrition. It is characterized by static trench lines, heavy artillery bombardments, and high casualties.

Which poses the question: why is Zaluzhnyi choosing to reveal this now? This could indicate internal rifts within the Ukrainian government, a plea for continued Western assistance, or an attempt to draw the attention of Western decision-makers. If the actual rift exists, the first signs of it were Arestovych’s interest in the presidency and his subsequent departure from Ukraine. Arestovych is a vivid figure in the Ukrainian media and former advisor to Zelensky.

No excuses, just results

Despite initial high hopes for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, progress has been limited especially in comparison to the successes of Summer 2022. In the emerging results of the most recent offensives is that Ukrainian forces advanced only 17 kilometers against predictions of 30km per day, as reported on Economist.com and detailed in Zaluzhnyi’s own essay.

Despite all odds, Russia has been bolstering its defenses and war efforts, weathering heavy casualties, maintaining a war-focused economy, and managing internal discontent. While Ukrainians, who had anticipated their forces reaching Crimea and reclaiming new Russian territories, now face a reality far from their expectations, leading to growing disillusionment with their leadership.

The past year has seen Ukrainian forces engaged in the contentious battle for Bakhmut while Russian forces have fortified their positions around Ukraine, laying mines, trenches, and extensive defensive structures. These fortifications, detailed by the Institute for the Study of War and visible on Google Maps, are formidable and multi-layered, posing significant challenges to any Ukrainian advance, particularly towards Crimea, which Russia views as integral part of its territory.

The U.S. has been unwavering in its military support for Ukraine, yet a recurring issue is the delayed provision of Western armaments, missing crucial opportunities on the battlefield and allowing Russian forces to fortify and regroup. Due to achieved military parity, only a technological miracle could potentially tip the war in Ukraine’s favor.

A key focus in Zaluzhny’s piece is the need for advanced electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, including drone jamming and anti-drone technologies, in addition to more airpower to achieve air superiority. Russia’s superiority in air power, electronic warfare, artillery, and troop numbers underscores Ukraine’s need for enhanced technology for any significant breakthrough.

Interestingly, Zaluzhny publicly acknowledges weaknesses and challenges, a rarity from any Ukrainian official. These admissions range from difficulties in training soldiers rapidly to some avoiding mobilization. Not everyone is willing to die or give up a limb even if the spirit of purported near victory is high. 

Amid the ongoing conflict, Ukraine’s economy has contracted significantly, with over 9 million of its citizens now displaced either internally or as refugees abroad. Despite a positive shift in its real GDP, as reported by the IMF, the decline in population from 41 million to 33 million is stark.

As the war drags on, Zaluznnyi concedes that time favors Russia due to its larger resources and economy.

A key challenge is defining a realistic and achievable victory. Zaluzhnyi, in his work “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win in It,” envisions victory as the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 internationally recognized borders. Whether Putin will entertain this or not, he had already referred to his former boss Anatoly Sobchak on this matter. Sobchak suggested that post-Soviet boundaries should revert to pre-Soviet Union status, with any territorial gains subject to negotiation. Sobchak’s stance highlights the complexity and volatility or former republics following the Soviet Union’s collapse.

In Zaluzhny’s essay, an intriguing detail is the purposeful use of lowercase for “russia” and “putin,” while maintaining the standard capitalization for “Soviet Union.” It is a small, perhaps even petty, stylistic choice but significant in the context of the psychological and symbolic aspects of warfare, particularly in the effort to win hearts and minds. On paper, such nuances contribute to Ukraine’s strategy of maintaining moral and rhetorical superiority.

Although Ukraine might have won the public opinion battles, the victory in the war is still out of their reach. As the conflict continues, concerns about Russia’s winter strategy, including potential attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, are rising. Zelensky’s warning about a third world war potentially erupting from Ukraine reflect a dreadful situation in his backyard. Recent developments have seen changes in Ukraine’s military leadership, with some commanders reportedly refusing orders, indicating internal disagreements over war strategies.

The references of Ukrainian officials to the World War III, Middle East, and Israel are an attempt to make the war in Ukraine relevant to the West by posing it as a harbinger of global instability.

Post Traumatic Political Disorder

The November 20, 2023, issue of Time magazine featured “The Lonely Fight of Volodymyr Zelensky,” with its cover and associated headlines painting Zelensky as a solitary figure tirelessly advocating for Ukraine’s cause worldwide. In the spirit of being in the world of “Nobody” and “Lonely”, commentators like Arestovych and Shuster have characterized Zelensky as leaning towards authoritarianism, an assessment echoed by other pundits. This crisis is seen as a test of Zelensky’s power ambitions and whether these circumstances might push him towards authoritarian rule. The immediate test of Zelensky’s power aspirations will be the upcoming 2024 elections and whether he will choose to follow US’ advice to conduct them and thus legitimize his presidency for the next term.

Mykhailo Podolyak, Zelensky’s advisor, criticizes the article as subjective, feeding into the growing war fatigue and political fragmentation in Ukraine, especially with presidential elections on the horizon. The Kyiv Post highlights that Simon Shuster, born in Moscow and known for his critical stance on Ukraine, faces accusations of propagating Russian narratives despite being banned from working in Russia.

Shuster’s viewpoints are significant and will find a receptive audience in the West, where free press is highly valued.

There are no major surprises in his assessment. For example, Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO require significant anti-corruption efforts. Scandals, including those related to recruitment, have plagued Ukraine during the war, leading to calls from U.S. officials for increased scrutiny and anti-corruption reforms.

The dynamics of politics and public opinion are intricately linked, as demonstrated in the discussions surrounding publications like those of Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Simon Shuster. These narratives cater not only to the informed public but also to the elite, who are often sensitive to shifts in public sentiment. In the U.S., for example, while there is widespread sympathy for Ukraine and a push for more aid, there is also a significant demand for transparency and accountability in this assistance, especially given domestic challenges like inflation and existential conflicts in the Middle East. Platforms like X (formerly Twitter) are arenas for intense 280-character debates over these issues.

While the broader political landscape and public debates, often amplified on platforms like X and Facebook, shape the contours of international policy and aid, these discussions also resonate at a more personal level.

Initially, the invasion saw a surge in military enlistment, with the Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces gaining 100,000 recruits in just ten days. This mobilization was driven by early optimistic predictions of a swift victory, but the reality of prolonged conflict has altered these perceptions. “Many people thought they could sign up for a quick tour and take part in a heroic victory,”- a source said to Shuster.

The Empire Must Die

A prevailing theme in the discourse about Ukraine’s struggle is the portrayal of Russia as a colonizing force, threatening Ukraine’s national identity, culture, and history. Although some of these historical perspectives might be revisionist, they form a narrative of resistance against the Russian attempt to re-colonize Ukraine. However, Russia’s own self-perception is not that of a colonizer but rather an empire, with a history of expanding its frontiers in response to existential threats from various directions.

The narrative of resistance against what is seen as Russian attempts at re-colonization goes beyond symbolic defiance; it directly influences the strategic decisions of Ukraine’s leadership. Both Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi are actively working to prevent a ceasefire in the conflict. Their concern is that any pause would allow Russian forces to regroup, resupply, and strengthen their defenses, potentially making any future offensives in the spring more difficult, if not impossible.

As the war in Ukraine drags on, the crucial role of Western military support remains a linchpin in Ukraine’s ability to continue its fight. President Zelensky’s adept engagement with global leaders and the public has been pivotal in keeping the Ukrainian struggle at the forefront of international agenda. Simultaneously, the narratives posed by military leaders like Zaluzhnyi, suggest that time favors Russia, which in view of an U.S.-led global order is the empire that must die.

References:

1. “The Economist.” “Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief on the Breakthrough He Needs to Beat Russia.” The Economist, 1 Nov. 2023, www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-commander-in-chief-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia. Accessed 6 Nov. 2023.

2. International Monetary Fund. “Ukraine and the IMF.” IMF, www.imf.org/en/Countries/UKR. Accessed 13 Nov. 2023.

3. Zaluzhny, Valery. “The Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces on How to Win the War.” The Economist, 1 Nov. 2023, www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/11/01/the-commander-in-chief-of-ukraines-armed-forces-on-how-to-win-the-war. Accessed 6 Nov. 2023.

4. Dirac, Jeremy. “Critical TIME Article About Zelensky Raises Firestorm in Ukraine.” KyivPost, 5 Nov. 2023, www.kyivpost.com/post/23646. Accessed 13 Nov. 2023.

5. Shuster, Simon. “The Lonely Fight of Volodymyr Zelesnky.” TIME, www.time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/. Accessed 13 Nov. 2023.

6. Putin, Vladimir. “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” Kremlin, 12 July 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181. Accessed 13 Nov. 2023.

7. Zaluzhnyi, Valerii. “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win in It.” https://infographics.economist.com/2023/ExternalContent/ZALUZHNYI_FULL_VERSION.pdf. Accessed 13 Nov. 2023.

8. Russian and Belarusian Fortifications. Google Maps, Google, https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=48.93564711838294%2C33.93592906249999&z=7. Accessed 13 Nov. 2023.